That Evo would win was pretty much a foregone conclusion. The rest of the analysis is very good, particularly the prediction that votes from the exterior could really make a difference in the future. I didn't realize it could be larger than some regions voting population.
Official results aren't out yet. But here's what we know so far about yesterday's election in Bolivia: Evo Morales won (as expected), and by about the margin predicted in polls (I explain below). MAS also won majorities in both legislative chambers, but only managed a 2/3 supermajority (so far) in the upper chamber. The autonomy referendums were a smashing success, winning massively almost entirely across the board