It still looks like Bolivians will elect Evo Morales, a coca farmer who’s promised to make coca growing legal again, as the next president. Elections will be held on the 18th of the month and Morales has an 32.8% to 27.7% lead over the other leading candidate Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga. Morales lost the 2002 elections by a mere 2 points. No matter who wins, the likelihood of the next government lasting beyond the year is low.
But this being Bolivia, nothing is simple. Unless Mr Morales gains more than 50% at the polls, the next president will be decided by a Congress vote – which is likely to go against him. The outcome could be catastrophic, the country becoming once again riven with protest and instability.